***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9.1 13.5 20.3 201.6 87.0 80.1 2.5 4.4 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 8.7 11.2 18.4 168.0 81.5 74.9 2.7 4.6 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 11.0 14.1 18.3 173.9 82.5 75.7 3.2 5.5 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 13.9 20.5 23.1 194.0 85.8 76.6 4.5 7.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 10.2 12.7 15.3 151.2 77.8 68.8 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.6 12.8 13.6 114.5 67.6 58.6 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 8.6 10.7 17.5 153.8 78.6 73.2 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.7 16.4 13.9 100.1 61.8 53.9 8.7 12.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 9.8 13.0 16.3 158.4 79.4 70.0 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.2 11.3 16.4 123.2 69.5 60.9 4.1 6.8 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.7 8.8 13.4 124.6 70.9 62.1 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.8 10.7 11.1 103.6 63.9 55.8 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.9 10.0 98.5 62.0 54.8 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 13.7 15.7 20.9 147.2 77.2 71.0 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 11.6 17.6 19.2 193.9 84.8 76.0 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.0 11.4 13.3 130.8 72.0 62.8 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.8 10.3 18.1 154.3 78.9 71.9 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 12.7 17.6 121.3 68.7 61.1 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 8.4 10.8 19.1 177.1 83.1 76.3 2.8 4.6 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.7 7.7 12.5 79.4 52.4 47.4 4.2 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 8.5 11.6 18.3 183.8 83.9 76.3 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 9.4 12.7 19.3 163.4 80.6 73.2 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 9.9 12.6 19.6 177.5 83.1 76.3 3.1 5.1 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 10.6 12.5 18.5 147.8 77.1 69.6 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 10.9 14.4 20.0 183.5 84.4 78.0 3.4 5.7 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.2 6.9 8.1 76.2 52.9 47.1 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 9.3 12.2 20.1 183.4 84.3 77.8 3.0 4.8 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.4 15.1 19.4 175.6 82.0 71.6 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.4 15.8 15.5 104.6 62.7 56.2 6.2 10.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 8.1 10.3 18.3 168.3 81.5 74.9 2.3 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------