***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 14.1 13.6 19.3 116.7 69.0 59.0 4.0 7.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 12.6 18.5 122.7 70.7 57.2 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.7 19.6 125.8 71.6 60.9 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.6 16.6 21.1 105.0 64.5 54.1 5.5 10.4 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.0 15.1 21.7 117.0 68.7 58.1 3.9 7.9 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.7 22.1 100.7 62.0 51.7 4.8 8.4 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.5 18.7 120.9 70.2 56.9 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.3 22.1 22.1 111.2 66.1 55.6 9.1 14.9 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.3 14.5 23.1 125.0 71.2 60.4 3.4 6.9 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.3 17.4 25.3 120.4 69.5 59.1 5.1 9.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.8 19.6 113.7 67.6 57.1 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.1 18.5 108.4 65.7 54.5 3.9 7.0 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.9 19.6 99.0 62.3 52.4 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.8 15.8 25.9 120.3 69.6 58.3 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.9 19.8 105.9 65.4 53.2 3.5 6.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.9 19.2 100.7 62.8 52.7 4.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 14.9 17.5 113.5 68.0 54.1 4.1 8.2 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.0 19.2 27.3 117.9 68.5 58.5 6.2 11.1 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.8 16.6 18.6 122.7 70.6 58.2 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.3 24.7 108.9 64.7 55.9 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.1 13.1 20.3 118.1 69.4 59.3 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.3 16.7 18.0 113.9 68.0 54.2 4.6 9.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 13.5 12.4 18.6 119.8 69.7 58.8 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.3 18.2 24.7 122.8 70.4 60.0 5.0 9.4 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.9 20.8 107.6 65.8 57.0 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.4 16.9 97.6 61.9 50.7 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.3 14.1 20.7 114.4 68.1 58.5 4.0 7.7 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.6 20.4 101.4 63.2 52.3 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.4 21.3 26.4 112.8 66.5 56.6 6.8 12.7 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.3 19.6 128.9 72.4 59.5 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------