***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.5 20.9 16.5 94.9 61.8 49.1 8.2 14.8 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.7 14.2 16.0 101.0 63.5 47.6 5.7 9.8 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 9.2 18.2 15.6 90.2 59.3 45.7 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.7 21.4 19.9 102.5 63.8 47.6 8.5 14.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 8.1 22.0 18.6 99.0 62.5 47.5 7.9 15.0 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.6 14.4 20.9 91.3 57.5 45.6 6.9 11.6 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.0 15.0 16.4 99.8 63.4 49.4 5.6 10.0 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 14.0 25.6 20.2 90.5 57.1 46.0 13.8 21.6 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.8 15.5 18.3 95.0 60.6 46.8 6.3 11.4 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 20.3 20.2 21.4 93.6 58.9 47.3 10.3 16.3 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.4 13.5 16.9 93.1 59.3 45.9 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 7.0 14.9 17.3 92.4 58.9 46.0 6.8 11.7 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 6.0 13.2 19.1 90.9 57.9 45.0 6.3 10.6 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.8 19.2 21.3 90.4 57.2 43.9 8.6 15.4 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.0 13.0 17.9 99.6 63.5 45.0 5.0 8.9 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.1 16.0 17.8 92.4 59.0 45.0 7.4 12.5 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.7 16.9 106.8 65.8 48.1 4.2 7.8 12.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.2 18.0 23.2 93.0 57.8 46.4 9.3 14.9 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.4 17.4 15.7 98.0 62.1 45.9 6.5 11.8 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 10.0 16.5 22.1 88.6 54.3 44.4 9.9 15.0 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.5 16.7 91.9 59.9 45.4 7.8 13.2 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.2 13.7 17.4 102.7 64.0 45.5 6.4 10.0 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 6.8 15.7 15.6 94.6 60.3 44.1 7.4 12.0 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.4 18.6 19.4 88.8 56.9 45.1 9.3 15.5 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.3 17.6 18.5 94.8 61.1 48.4 7.1 12.7 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.6 12.4 16.8 88.4 57.4 42.9 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.5 20.4 17.4 93.2 60.8 49.0 8.8 15.2 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.6 15.2 19.6 100.8 63.0 45.2 6.8 11.0 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.3 23.2 92.2 57.1 46.1 12.6 20.4 30.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 7.6 17.8 16.1 99.0 63.0 48.3 7.5 12.7 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------