***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 64.9 65.7 72.7 123.7 72.2 65.8 35.4 46.8 59.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 53.5 55.5 68.8 123.4 72.1 64.2 27.8 38.2 49.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 62.6 63.5 69.8 120.1 70.2 63.2 34.7 46.5 59.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 67.7 78.0 80.6 116.4 68.0 58.9 48.4 61.4 75.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 57.9 65.1 71.4 111.0 64.6 56.0 38.4 51.6 66.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 40.7 53.4 72.9 93.7 50.5 46.2 42.3 53.2 65.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 54.5 56.0 68.0 119.8 70.1 63.6 27.0 38.5 51.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 70.4 89.8 70.7 94.4 51.0 46.1 73.6 88.9 104.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 51.3 58.2 73.0 112.2 65.4 57.3 35.0 46.3 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 44.3 63.9 79.2 103.7 58.8 52.4 44.7 57.1 70.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 33.3 49.8 65.3 103.3 59.2 51.9 33.9 43.7 54.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 39.1 51.4 59.9 94.8 52.3 46.4 40.9 50.0 59.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 33.8 42.7 62.9 89.4 47.7 43.7 35.2 43.9 53.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 65.3 71.6 87.3 108.7 63.0 56.5 44.9 59.0 74.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 44.0 48.6 72.7 113.8 66.2 57.0 31.8 39.9 48.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 36.8 48.7 64.5 97.0 54.3 48.2 37.2 46.2 55.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 58.4 57.7 67.7 118.7 69.3 61.3 27.2 39.5 54.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 67.8 66.5 84.7 101.5 57.0 51.6 47.4 60.5 75.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 68.4 70.9 69.7 123.3 72.0 64.2 36.3 49.4 64.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 40.3 50.6 74.3 87.9 43.4 42.0 43.0 55.4 68.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 49.2 58.6 71.2 116.6 68.0 59.9 32.6 43.7 56.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.2 58.1 70.9 118.6 69.2 60.4 31.5 42.7 55.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 61.3 61.8 70.3 119.8 70.0 62.8 31.8 44.0 57.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 63.5 68.8 80.0 108.9 63.0 56.4 44.0 57.2 71.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 65.8 65.4 78.7 117.6 68.7 62.1 37.1 49.1 62.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 30.1 38.2 54.3 83.2 42.5 39.7 32.9 42.7 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 68.2 67.5 76.8 120.5 70.4 64.4 38.4 50.1 63.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 47.0 50.7 75.0 109.7 63.6 54.6 34.4 42.8 52.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 66.2 81.8 81.8 96.0 51.9 48.1 67.6 80.2 93.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 60.8 63.5 69.8 124.1 72.6 65.3 29.2 41.5 55.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------