***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 8.1 7.9 8.9 -1.5 23.1 26.3 8.6 9.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 6.8 6.4 8.6 -1.7 19.8 23.3 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 8.7 8.4 8.5 -1.7 19.5 23.0 9.6 10.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 3.1 3.4 6.4 -1.3 25.5 28.4 4.1 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 5.5 5.6 6.7 -1.3 24.2 27.9 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 4.4 4.4 4.3 -1.4 21.5 25.9 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 7.0 6.8 8.7 -1.5 22.0 25.5 7.8 9.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 -1.1 -1.3 4.4 -1.6 18.3 22.9 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 6.1 6.0 7.0 -1.4 19.6 23.9 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 6.3 6.1 5.2 -1.5 18.3 22.8 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 5.9 5.6 5.9 -1.5 18.1 23.3 6.7 7.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 4.4 4.3 5.2 -1.4 21.6 26.2 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 5.7 5.7 5.1 -1.2 23.1 28.0 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 6.8 6.4 6.8 -1.8 15.8 19.5 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 7.5 7.8 7.9 -0.9 31.0 33.4 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 6.9 6.8 5.7 -1.3 22.0 26.7 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 7.5 7.1 8.2 -1.8 18.3 22.3 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 3.8 3.6 4.3 -1.6 16.9 21.2 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 7.0 6.6 8.4 -1.8 18.1 21.8 7.8 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 1.1 0.9 2.4 -1.6 17.2 21.7 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 6.2 6.0 8.2 -1.5 20.3 24.0 7.0 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 6.6 6.2 8.2 -1.9 15.8 19.9 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 6.7 6.1 8.0 -1.9 15.1 19.0 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 6.3 6.0 6.5 -1.7 16.0 19.8 7.1 8.1 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 6.8 6.6 7.7 -1.5 22.8 26.2 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 5.8 5.8 4.8 -1.2 25.6 29.3 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 7.1 6.9 8.3 -1.4 24.8 28.1 7.8 9.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 5.5 5.7 7.1 -1.0 28.9 31.7 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 3.3 2.8 3.7 -1.7 14.3 19.1 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 7.0 6.7 8.8 -1.6 20.7 24.1 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------