***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.7 11.6 -0.5 39.2 42.9 10.4 11.1 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.9 11.6 -0.5 40.4 43.6 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.4 11.3 -0.6 37.7 41.6 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 6.6 7.2 9.2 -0.7 34.2 39.9 7.1 8.2 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 8.6 9.1 9.1 -0.6 34.7 40.0 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 7.7 8.1 7.5 -0.5 37.2 42.4 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.9 11.7 -0.4 42.0 44.8 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 2.6 3.2 7.4 -0.5 39.4 42.8 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 9.6 10.1 9.5 -0.6 36.4 40.9 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 9.6 10.0 8.0 -0.5 37.9 41.8 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 9.2 9.7 8.6 -0.6 34.9 40.1 9.6 10.3 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.4 7.9 8.2 -0.5 36.8 41.4 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 8.9 9.2 7.7 -0.6 33.7 39.7 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 10.1 10.5 9.4 -0.7 34.4 39.1 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 10.2 10.7 9.9 -0.6 36.1 41.5 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 9.9 10.3 8.4 -0.6 34.0 39.9 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 10.4 11.1 11.4 -0.4 40.6 43.9 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 7.8 8.3 7.3 -0.5 38.2 41.8 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 10.3 10.9 11.4 -0.5 38.5 42.2 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.2 4.7 5.7 -0.4 40.4 43.3 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 9.5 10.0 10.6 -0.6 36.9 41.3 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 9.6 10.2 11.1 -0.6 37.8 41.9 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 9.8 10.3 10.9 -0.6 35.8 40.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 9.6 10.0 9.2 -0.6 36.2 40.4 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 9.9 10.3 9.9 -0.6 35.5 40.8 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 8.6 8.9 7.9 -0.7 32.6 39.1 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 10.0 10.8 10.8 -0.5 38.2 42.5 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 8.4 8.8 9.5 -0.6 35.0 40.6 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.8 7.4 6.7 -0.5 39.1 42.3 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 10.2 10.9 11.7 -0.5 40.3 43.5 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------