***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.5 13.2 0.2 52.7 52.0 11.4 12.3 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.2 13.2 0.1 51.1 50.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.0 13.8 12.9 0.1 51.2 50.5 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.0 8.5 10.9 -0.1 48.6 49.1 7.4 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.0 10.8 10.8 0.0 49.6 49.7 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.7 9.0 0.1 51.9 51.5 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.5 12.3 13.2 0.1 51.3 50.6 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.4 9.0 0.1 52.4 51.7 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.7 11.1 0.0 50.3 49.8 10.9 11.7 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.5 9.6 0.1 51.6 50.8 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.5 11.4 10.3 0.0 50.5 50.5 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 9.6 9.5 9.8 0.1 51.8 51.6 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 11.0 10.9 9.3 0.0 50.7 51.1 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.2 11.0 -0.1 48.6 48.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.4 11.4 -0.1 47.8 48.4 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.7 10.0 0.0 49.5 50.0 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.5 12.9 0.0 50.4 49.7 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.1 8.8 0.1 51.6 50.5 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.5 12.3 13.0 0.0 50.6 49.9 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.2 7.2 0.1 52.3 50.9 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.7 12.3 0.0 50.8 50.4 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.7 12.7 0.0 49.8 49.2 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 12.1 11.9 12.6 0.0 49.7 49.0 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.6 10.8 0.0 50.3 49.5 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.2 11.7 0.1 51.8 51.6 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.2 9.4 -0.1 47.7 48.5 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.5 12.4 0.1 52.5 51.9 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.5 11.1 -0.1 47.1 47.9 9.9 10.7 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.6 8.2 0.1 52.5 51.2 7.4 8.5 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.5 13.3 0.1 51.6 50.8 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------