***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.0 11.0 -0.7 28.9 34.0 10.2 10.8 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 9.7 9.8 10.9 -0.7 27.9 33.3 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 11.4 11.4 10.8 -0.7 26.5 32.1 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 6.2 6.2 8.7 -0.6 28.3 33.8 6.5 7.2 7.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 8.4 8.4 8.7 -0.6 28.9 34.7 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.2 7.3 7.0 -0.5 32.4 38.4 7.4 7.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 9.8 9.9 11.0 -0.6 30.1 34.9 10.0 10.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.0 2.1 6.9 -0.6 29.3 35.4 2.2 2.8 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.1 -0.6 27.6 34.1 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.2 9.2 7.5 -0.6 28.3 34.8 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 8.9 8.9 8.2 -0.6 28.3 34.3 9.1 9.5 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 7.2 7.3 7.7 -0.5 30.4 36.2 7.3 7.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 8.4 8.6 7.3 -0.5 31.9 38.1 8.6 9.0 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 9.7 9.6 8.9 -0.8 22.5 29.0 10.0 10.5 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.2 9.5 -0.5 32.6 37.4 10.2 10.7 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.6 9.6 8.0 -0.5 30.5 36.3 9.7 10.2 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 10.1 10.1 10.7 -0.7 26.3 32.0 10.3 10.9 11.4 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.3 7.3 6.8 -0.6 27.2 34.1 7.5 8.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 9.9 9.9 10.8 -0.7 26.0 31.9 10.1 10.7 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.9 4.0 5.1 -0.5 30.2 36.7 4.1 4.6 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 9.2 9.2 10.2 -0.7 27.1 33.2 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 9.3 9.3 10.5 -0.8 24.0 30.2 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 9.5 9.4 10.4 -0.8 23.2 29.5 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.2 9.1 8.7 -0.7 24.4 30.9 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 9.6 9.6 9.5 -0.7 26.7 32.7 9.8 10.3 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 8.1 8.2 7.4 -0.5 30.1 37.0 8.3 8.8 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 9.9 10.0 10.3 -0.6 29.3 34.6 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.3 9.1 -0.5 31.5 36.3 8.3 8.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.3 6.3 6.2 -0.6 27.3 34.4 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.0 11.1 -0.7 28.5 33.7 10.2 10.7 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------