***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 19.2 17.6 17.2 -3.8 7.0 10.8 20.5 21.7 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 18.3 16.0 17.0 -4.0 5.5 9.2 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 18.4 16.5 17.2 -4.0 6.6 10.5 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 10.8 9.7 15.4 -3.1 12.2 16.7 12.4 14.0 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 18.6 17.1 16.0 -3.6 9.6 14.6 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 17.1 16.7 14.8 -2.3 20.9 26.2 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 18.1 15.9 17.0 -3.9 5.6 9.2 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 5.9 4.7 14.4 -3.4 12.9 18.0 7.2 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 18.0 16.5 16.7 -3.8 8.7 13.3 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 18.1 16.8 15.2 -3.6 10.7 15.4 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 18.1 16.9 15.8 -3.4 11.1 16.2 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 17.3 16.2 15.2 -3.2 13.2 18.6 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 18.0 17.0 15.4 -3.1 13.7 19.6 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 17.8 15.8 15.9 -4.5 6.2 9.7 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 18.5 18.1 17.3 -2.6 16.5 20.1 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 18.6 17.4 15.7 -3.1 12.8 18.4 19.9 21.4 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 17.5 15.1 16.6 -4.1 4.8 8.2 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 17.3 15.9 14.2 -3.9 9.7 14.2 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 17.9 15.7 17.0 -4.1 5.6 9.2 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 12.3 10.9 12.2 -3.8 11.0 16.1 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 18.3 16.6 17.1 -4.0 7.7 11.8 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 17.9 15.4 16.5 -4.3 4.6 7.8 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 18.1 15.8 16.9 -4.2 5.7 9.3 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 17.8 16.2 15.8 -4.2 7.6 11.5 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 18.2 16.6 16.0 -3.8 7.7 11.6 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 17.5 16.8 14.8 -2.6 18.0 23.5 18.5 20.0 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 94 6 0 100 18.3 16.7 16.6 -3.8 6.8 10.7 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 18.3 17.7 16.4 -2.8 15.7 20.0 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 12.1 10.5 13.3 -4.1 9.4 14.1 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 18.2 16.1 17.2 -3.9 6.0 9.7 19.7 21.1 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------