***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.4 21.5 20.7 -0.6 42.1 44.6 20.7 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.4 20.7 -0.6 41.6 43.8 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 20.6 21.5 20.8 -0.6 41.2 43.9 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 13.2 14.4 19.2 -0.5 43.6 45.9 13.5 14.9 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.7 19.4 -0.5 43.6 45.7 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 18.6 20.5 17.8 -0.1 48.4 48.1 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.1 21.1 20.7 -0.6 41.6 43.6 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 9.5 18.2 -0.2 46.9 47.7 8.3 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.1 19.7 -0.5 42.8 45.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 20.0 21.1 18.7 -0.4 44.3 46.0 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 20.0 21.5 19.0 -0.4 45.2 46.7 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 19.1 20.6 19.0 -0.2 47.1 47.8 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 19.8 21.5 18.5 -0.2 47.2 47.6 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.1 19.4 -0.8 39.5 42.4 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 20.4 21.7 19.5 -0.4 44.5 46.8 20.7 22.1 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 20.4 22.0 18.8 -0.3 46.1 47.1 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 19.7 20.6 20.5 -0.7 40.5 42.6 20.0 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.5 20.5 18.2 -0.5 43.9 45.6 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.9 20.8 -0.6 41.3 43.7 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.0 16.4 -0.1 48.4 48.7 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.3 20.3 -0.6 41.8 44.4 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.1 20.4 -0.7 39.8 42.3 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.2 20.6 -0.7 40.1 43.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.0 20.9 19.4 -0.7 41.1 43.6 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 20.3 21.3 19.3 -0.6 41.9 44.6 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 19.2 21.0 18.4 0.0 49.9 49.4 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 20.2 21.2 20.0 -0.6 42.1 44.5 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 20.3 21.6 19.4 -0.4 44.4 46.5 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.6 17.3 -0.4 45.3 46.6 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.2 20.9 -0.6 42.0 44.1 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------