***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 21.8 23.0 21.6 -0.5 42.9 44.1 22.2 23.5 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 21.8 23.4 21.7 -0.3 44.9 45.5 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 21.9 23.2 21.6 -0.5 42.2 43.6 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 14.6 15.6 19.8 -0.6 39.9 42.5 15.0 16.4 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 22.1 23.1 19.9 -0.6 39.9 42.4 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 20.8 21.7 18.0 -0.6 39.7 43.8 21.2 22.4 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 21.3 22.9 21.7 -0.3 45.5 45.9 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.1 11.0 18.4 -0.6 40.8 43.0 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.5 22.5 20.3 -0.7 39.9 42.3 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 21.4 22.3 19.1 -0.7 40.0 42.4 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 21.7 22.6 19.4 -0.6 39.8 42.6 22.1 23.4 24.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 21.0 21.9 19.2 -0.6 40.4 43.1 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 22.0 22.9 18.7 -0.6 39.7 43.1 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 21.9 22.9 19.9 -0.7 40.2 41.8 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 21.9 23.0 20.1 -0.6 40.0 42.7 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 22.4 23.4 19.2 -0.7 39.5 42.7 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 21.0 22.6 21.6 -0.3 45.6 45.8 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 21.0 22.0 18.4 -0.7 40.3 42.1 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 21.4 22.8 21.7 -0.4 44.0 44.9 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 16.1 17.1 16.4 -0.6 40.9 42.4 16.5 17.8 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 21.7 22.7 21.0 -0.6 40.5 42.5 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 21.7 23.1 21.4 -0.4 44.1 44.7 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 21.9 23.1 21.3 -0.5 42.1 43.5 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.4 19.9 -0.7 40.5 42.3 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 21.8 22.8 20.1 -0.6 41.0 42.9 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 21.3 22.3 18.6 -0.6 41.0 43.8 21.7 23.0 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 21.6 22.8 20.9 -0.5 42.7 43.9 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 21.9 22.9 19.9 -0.6 39.3 42.3 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 16.0 17.0 17.4 -0.7 40.5 42.1 16.4 17.8 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 21.6 23.1 21.8 -0.4 44.5 45.2 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------