***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 21.1 20.9 20.7 -1.2 23.5 29.4 21.6 22.7 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 21.3 21.1 20.7 -1.2 24.6 29.9 21.7 22.7 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 21.3 21.1 20.8 -1.3 22.7 28.7 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.2 14.1 19.0 -1.1 25.8 32.0 14.5 15.5 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 21.5 21.4 19.3 -1.2 23.9 30.6 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 20.1 20.4 17.7 -0.7 31.9 38.5 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 21.0 20.8 20.7 -1.2 24.6 30.1 21.4 22.4 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 9.3 9.4 17.8 -1.0 27.0 33.8 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 20.9 20.7 19.7 -1.3 23.0 29.7 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 21.0 20.9 18.5 -1.2 24.6 31.4 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 21.1 21.1 18.9 -1.1 25.1 32.1 21.5 22.4 23.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 20.4 20.4 18.6 -1.0 27.3 34.3 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 21.3 21.4 18.3 -1.0 27.4 34.7 21.7 22.5 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 21.1 20.8 19.3 -1.5 20.1 26.2 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 21.6 21.7 19.7 -0.9 28.9 34.5 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 21.7 21.7 18.7 -1.0 26.5 33.6 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 20.6 20.4 20.5 -1.3 23.8 29.1 21.0 22.1 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 20.5 20.4 17.8 -1.3 23.7 30.6 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 20.9 20.7 20.8 -1.3 23.9 29.4 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 15.5 15.5 15.8 -1.1 26.0 33.0 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 21.1 20.9 20.3 -1.3 22.0 28.5 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 21.0 20.8 20.4 -1.4 22.6 27.9 21.5 22.6 23.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 21.1 20.9 20.5 -1.4 22.2 28.0 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 20.7 20.6 19.3 -1.4 21.7 28.2 21.3 22.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 21.2 20.9 19.3 -1.3 22.6 28.8 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 20.6 20.9 18.1 -0.8 31.3 37.6 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 21.1 20.9 20.0 -1.2 23.3 29.2 21.5 22.4 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 21.6 21.6 19.4 -1.0 27.9 34.0 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 15.4 15.3 16.9 -1.3 23.9 30.9 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 21.1 20.9 20.9 -1.2 24.5 30.0 21.5 22.5 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------