***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 7.8 12.3 20.9 202.2 87.2 79.3 2.0 3.6 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 8.0 13.2 19.9 200.1 87.4 77.1 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 10.5 15.8 19.7 188.5 85.4 77.0 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.8 16.2 19.0 144.0 76.1 70.6 4.9 8.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 10.1 11.8 18.5 144.8 76.6 71.1 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.2 9.7 16.1 101.4 62.8 55.9 3.2 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 8.4 13.5 19.7 195.0 86.7 76.7 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 12.9 16.7 16.9 108.2 65.3 60.5 6.9 11.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 10.2 12.4 18.0 146.3 77.2 70.3 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 9.9 11.0 18.8 126.9 71.4 65.9 3.5 6.1 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 9.4 10.7 16.7 132.7 73.3 67.5 2.1 4.6 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 8.2 11.9 14.9 114.4 67.7 61.9 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 9.2 12.4 16.6 113.6 67.5 61.0 4.5 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 15.0 20.9 24.2 179.5 84.8 76.6 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 10.8 12.5 17.3 134.2 73.5 65.8 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.0 10.4 16.3 119.1 69.2 62.9 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 8.5 15.1 20.8 210.7 88.4 78.6 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 12.3 13.6 20.9 129.7 72.7 66.1 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 7.7 12.0 20.2 199.7 87.2 77.1 2.6 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 8.5 11.2 20.0 111.2 66.4 61.4 4.4 7.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 9.1 12.9 19.0 175.1 83.8 75.6 2.6 4.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 9.3 17.1 22.5 218.5 89.4 78.7 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 9.7 14.4 20.8 199.9 87.1 77.8 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 12.2 15.4 21.1 156.2 79.9 72.0 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 10.6 15.5 24.3 187.8 85.9 79.9 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.6 9.7 15.1 102.7 64.4 57.5 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 8.6 13.1 24.0 199.1 87.6 80.8 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 6.8 11.1 16.6 124.4 71.1 64.7 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 17.1 19.1 21.5 130.6 72.8 66.7 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 6.5 10.7 19.7 196.1 86.8 77.0 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------