***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.6 12.9 15.5 101.9 63.3 46.9 5.4 9.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.1 14.2 99.7 61.6 46.0 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.6 16.5 110.2 66.1 49.7 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.1 20.3 19.1 101.3 63.7 49.6 7.6 13.6 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.5 14.1 19.0 100.8 63.6 48.9 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 6.5 16.1 22.2 92.6 59.2 47.5 6.6 12.1 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.8 12.4 13.8 94.7 60.0 45.7 5.8 9.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 11.0 27.4 18.6 97.4 61.1 48.6 11.4 20.1 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.1 15.4 18.8 101.1 63.8 49.4 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.8 16.4 20.5 101.1 63.0 49.9 6.5 11.4 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.7 15.5 17.4 103.5 64.7 49.4 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 7.3 16.1 15.4 97.7 62.4 48.6 7.6 12.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.7 12.2 17.9 91.4 59.4 47.5 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.0 18.7 19.7 105.1 63.9 50.7 6.3 12.0 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.0 16.7 94.8 61.6 49.7 4.6 8.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.8 13.6 18.3 100.3 63.0 48.7 5.9 9.7 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 6.1 14.1 12.5 88.8 57.5 43.7 6.1 11.2 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 18.5 23.1 105.2 64.0 50.9 6.9 12.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.5 18.9 14.8 105.6 64.1 47.7 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.4 14.7 22.4 94.8 57.8 47.0 7.7 12.2 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.7 14.0 16.8 101.9 63.8 47.7 5.8 9.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.0 13.0 13.1 91.6 58.6 45.9 6.8 10.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.0 18.1 15.9 110.4 65.9 49.7 6.8 11.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.8 18.8 20.5 109.7 65.8 51.0 6.0 11.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.3 15.4 19.4 97.5 61.5 47.5 6.2 11.0 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.1 10.6 14.9 82.8 56.0 44.3 5.4 9.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.8 14.7 17.8 97.4 61.4 47.0 6.7 11.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.9 12.4 18.3 100.0 63.5 49.9 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 21.4 23.0 105.1 63.7 51.0 7.6 13.9 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.7 13.0 14.9 102.7 62.7 47.2 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------