***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.5 26.5 13.9 119.8 70.3 53.3 8.8 15.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.5 17.5 14.3 114.9 68.6 56.5 6.7 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.0 23.4 13.8 119.1 69.8 55.3 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.7 21.7 16.2 108.1 66.7 52.7 8.1 13.9 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.9 23.8 15.2 106.4 65.9 51.9 8.1 14.8 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.9 16.5 19.4 99.1 62.5 50.4 6.4 11.5 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.4 18.4 15.5 122.5 70.8 58.1 6.3 10.5 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.0 27.1 16.4 101.2 63.2 50.3 11.2 19.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.4 18.0 14.8 109.3 66.6 52.7 6.2 11.0 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.0 22.5 17.0 103.6 64.2 51.1 9.7 15.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.4 14.9 13.6 103.6 65.0 50.3 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.5 16.1 12.9 99.2 63.4 50.1 6.5 11.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.0 13.9 15.3 96.4 62.6 50.7 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.6 23.4 17.7 107.9 66.4 53.7 8.5 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.4 15.3 116.4 69.5 53.0 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.5 15.5 14.4 98.0 63.3 49.6 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.6 14.7 13.9 109.8 67.0 54.7 5.9 9.5 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 17.6 18.9 97.9 62.6 50.5 7.9 12.9 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.0 21.2 13.5 110.6 67.4 55.0 7.8 13.3 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.8 19.6 96.3 61.5 50.6 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.5 20.2 12.8 112.4 67.8 53.0 7.1 12.3 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.6 14.7 12.8 104.1 65.6 53.7 7.4 10.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.9 13.4 107.6 66.6 53.9 7.0 11.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.3 22.3 16.9 104.8 65.3 52.6 8.8 14.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.5 22.1 17.1 119.5 70.0 55.8 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.0 12.5 93.3 61.1 50.1 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.0 26.3 17.1 123.1 71.0 55.2 9.0 14.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.2 16.9 15.4 103.1 65.5 50.8 6.9 11.3 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.1 25.5 18.9 96.7 62.1 50.4 11.4 18.7 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.3 21.2 14.5 120.0 70.0 56.8 8.4 13.2 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------