***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 52.5 67.4 67.8 126.3 73.8 61.5 35.8 47.0 59.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 43.5 55.8 64.6 123.8 71.9 61.2 28.7 39.1 50.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 52.9 68.2 66.5 124.7 73.1 60.7 35.7 47.6 60.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 68.9 76.4 75.9 112.7 65.7 57.2 49.1 62.4 76.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 58.5 66.6 73.9 113.1 65.9 57.7 38.8 51.9 66.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 58.8 57.4 84.2 99.0 56.1 51.0 41.8 53.0 65.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 44.0 57.6 66.2 124.1 71.8 62.0 28.0 39.1 51.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 94.3 93.7 72.1 100.2 56.3 51.2 73.6 88.0 103.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 53.3 60.0 71.9 113.3 66.1 57.6 36.2 47.3 60.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 63.2 66.0 78.0 106.1 61.0 54.4 44.2 56.8 70.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 49.6 54.4 66.5 111.3 64.8 56.7 34.1 44.3 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 54.9 55.5 60.5 102.9 58.7 52.7 41.8 50.7 60.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 33.8 47.7 70.8 100.3 57.0 52.0 34.8 43.7 53.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 67.5 80.1 82.2 117.0 68.5 59.5 46.8 61.1 77.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 44.2 47.7 67.9 108.9 63.5 55.4 32.3 40.4 49.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 51.1 52.7 69.0 105.3 60.7 53.9 36.6 46.0 56.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 46.6 61.0 63.3 123.1 71.1 62.1 28.3 40.6 55.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 64.9 67.4 86.8 104.7 60.1 54.1 46.8 59.2 72.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 56.5 71.8 64.5 124.4 72.5 60.8 38.6 50.9 64.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 61.3 58.8 87.0 97.8 54.0 50.5 43.6 55.7 69.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 32.5 60.7 66.4 120.2 70.3 59.7 32.9 44.1 56.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 48.4 60.3 63.6 122.4 71.1 61.7 32.4 43.2 55.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 50.7 64.9 66.7 124.3 72.6 60.6 32.4 44.4 57.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 63.3 72.4 78.8 113.1 66.0 57.2 45.1 57.8 72.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 55.6 70.4 83.6 123.2 72.5 61.2 37.2 49.4 63.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 48.3 45.5 61.2 95.5 53.6 49.0 33.7 43.2 53.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 55.4 71.0 80.4 125.8 73.9 62.0 38.4 50.0 63.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 48.0 50.5 70.2 105.9 61.7 54.5 35.2 43.7 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 83.3 85.5 87.6 104.4 59.7 54.4 66.6 78.5 90.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 47.2 63.0 65.7 124.7 72.7 61.0 29.5 41.5 55.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------