***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 11.0 11.1 11.8 1.3 71.2 70.3 8.6 9.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.5 11.2 1.2 69.2 68.3 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 12.4 12.4 11.8 1.3 72.8 71.7 9.6 10.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 7.4 7.7 9.0 1.5 76.6 75.3 4.1 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 9.1 9.1 9.7 1.2 71.8 70.8 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.1 6.5 1.1 71.2 70.2 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.4 11.2 1.2 69.1 68.2 7.8 9.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 2.3 2.3 6.4 0.8 67.8 66.7 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 9.6 9.7 9.7 1.3 74.2 73.0 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 9.4 9.5 7.6 1.0 71.3 69.9 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 8.8 8.9 8.9 1.1 72.0 70.8 6.7 7.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 7.0 7.0 7.7 1.0 70.0 69.0 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 8.3 8.6 8.0 1.3 77.6 75.9 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 10.4 10.8 9.6 1.6 81.5 79.7 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 10.0 10.3 10.4 1.4 76.7 75.2 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 10.1 10.3 8.6 1.3 75.6 74.3 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 10.4 10.4 10.8 1.1 67.5 66.7 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 7.2 7.5 7.1 1.1 72.5 71.2 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 10.4 10.4 11.3 1.3 71.5 70.5 7.8 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 4.0 4.1 5.1 0.8 67.9 66.8 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 9.7 9.8 11.0 1.3 74.0 72.9 7.0 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 9.8 9.8 11.2 1.3 72.2 71.1 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 10.1 10.2 11.2 1.4 74.8 73.5 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 9.4 9.7 9.5 1.4 77.9 76.2 7.1 8.1 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 9.1 10.0 10.7 1.0 66.1 65.2 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 8.2 8.4 7.1 1.3 75.3 74.2 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 10.9 11.0 11.3 1.2 68.6 67.7 7.8 9.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 8.2 8.5 9.5 1.6 78.4 77.0 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 6.7 6.9 6.1 0.9 69.4 68.0 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.8 10.8 11.6 1.3 70.5 69.5 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------