***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.3 12.3 1.4 72.4 65.6 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 11.0 11.1 11.8 1.1 68.1 62.7 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.9 12.2 1.2 71.0 64.8 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 7.6 8.1 9.6 1.4 74.8 68.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.5 9.7 9.9 1.2 70.7 65.7 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 8.3 8.5 7.4 1.1 71.9 66.7 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 10.9 11.1 11.9 1.2 70.3 64.3 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 3.3 3.2 7.2 0.8 65.9 63.3 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 10.1 10.1 9.9 1.0 68.7 64.6 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.0 8.1 0.9 67.1 63.8 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 9.7 9.7 9.2 0.9 67.1 64.1 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 8.2 8.1 8.2 0.9 66.9 64.0 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.2 8.0 0.9 67.7 64.5 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 10.7 10.8 9.7 1.1 70.9 66.0 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 11.1 11.6 11.0 1.4 76.3 70.0 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.7 8.7 1.0 69.4 65.4 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.2 11.5 1.1 68.6 63.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 8.1 8.1 7.5 0.9 68.3 64.7 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 10.9 10.9 11.7 1.0 68.0 62.6 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 5.1 4.9 5.5 0.8 66.0 63.0 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.4 11.3 1.1 70.7 65.2 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.5 11.5 1.1 69.7 64.2 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.5 11.6 1.0 68.5 63.3 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 10.1 10.2 9.7 1.1 70.8 65.9 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 10.6 10.9 11.1 1.3 70.9 64.9 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 9.1 9.1 7.5 1.0 68.7 64.5 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.6 12.1 11.9 1.4 73.0 66.1 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 9.1 9.6 10.0 1.5 76.0 69.7 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.5 6.7 0.8 65.1 62.5 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 11.1 11.2 12.1 1.2 69.5 63.5 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------