***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 10.2 11.5 12.3 0.4 58.1 53.4 10.4 11.1 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.7 12.0 0.3 56.1 52.4 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.4 13.4 12.4 0.5 59.3 54.2 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.9 8.7 9.6 0.4 58.1 54.6 7.1 8.2 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.8 10.1 9.6 0.3 56.7 53.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.0 7.7 0.5 60.2 55.6 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 10.2 11.6 12.1 0.4 57.1 52.9 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.9 7.4 0.2 53.9 52.4 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.0 9.9 0.4 58.0 54.1 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.7 8.2 0.3 56.0 53.1 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.5 8.9 0.2 54.7 52.8 9.6 10.3 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.7 8.2 0.2 55.2 53.2 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.2 7.7 0.3 56.6 53.6 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.3 9.8 0.3 56.6 53.6 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.8 11.0 0.6 61.6 56.4 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.3 8.5 0.3 56.1 53.7 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.7 11.8 0.3 56.0 52.2 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 9.1 7.5 0.3 57.1 54.0 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.7 12.0 0.3 56.5 52.7 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.3 5.4 0.3 55.4 54.2 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.0 11.4 0.4 58.3 53.7 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.0 11.6 0.3 56.3 52.6 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.2 11.9 0.4 57.8 53.6 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.9 9.6 0.4 58.8 54.4 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.2 10.8 0.4 56.7 52.7 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.9 7.5 0.3 56.1 53.3 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.2 12.0 11.7 0.5 58.6 53.6 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.9 10.0 0.5 60.6 56.3 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.2 6.9 0.3 55.7 53.7 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.7 12.2 0.4 57.3 53.1 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------