***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.4 12.6 0.0 50.2 49.6 11.4 12.3 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.1 12.3 0.0 49.7 49.2 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.9 12.8 0.1 52.5 51.0 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.9 10.2 0.2 53.1 51.5 7.4 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.0 10.3 0.2 53.3 51.7 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.0 8.4 0.4 58.8 55.4 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.2 12.4 0.0 50.4 49.8 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.4 8.1 0.2 53.4 52.0 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.8 10.5 0.2 54.3 52.4 10.9 11.7 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.6 8.9 0.2 54.4 52.6 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.5 9.7 0.2 54.3 52.6 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.6 8.9 0.2 54.3 52.8 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.1 8.5 0.3 56.3 53.9 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.4 10.4 0.2 54.6 52.4 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.8 11.5 0.3 56.5 53.6 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.0 9.2 0.3 55.8 53.5 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.5 12.2 0.0 50.3 49.9 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 9.1 10.2 8.2 0.3 56.3 53.5 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.3 12.4 0.1 51.0 50.2 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 6.3 6.1 0.3 55.7 53.1 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.7 11.8 0.1 51.9 50.7 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.8 12.1 0.1 52.5 51.6 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 12.4 0.2 53.8 52.1 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.8 10.2 0.3 56.0 53.4 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.1 11.1 0.0 49.5 49.1 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 8.2 0.3 56.5 54.1 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.4 12.0 0.0 50.9 50.2 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.9 10.6 0.3 56.2 53.5 9.9 10.7 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.1 8.8 7.6 0.2 55.5 52.8 7.4 8.5 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.4 12.6 0.0 50.3 49.6 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------