***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 11.4 11.5 12.3 0.8 71.5 65.9 10.2 10.8 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.3 11.8 0.6 67.7 63.2 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.2 12.3 0.8 72.5 66.6 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 8.0 8.3 9.6 0.9 75.7 69.6 6.5 7.2 7.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 9.7 9.8 9.9 0.7 71.8 66.7 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 8.5 8.6 7.5 0.8 74.8 68.8 7.4 7.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 11.2 11.3 11.9 0.7 69.2 64.2 10.0 10.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 3.5 3.4 7.3 0.5 66.8 63.1 2.2 2.8 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.5 10.0 0.7 72.4 67.2 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.4 8.2 0.6 69.9 65.3 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 10.0 10.1 9.2 0.6 69.6 65.3 9.1 9.5 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 8.3 8.3 8.2 0.6 69.0 64.7 7.3 7.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 9.6 9.7 8.1 0.7 73.4 68.2 8.6 9.0 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 11.1 11.3 9.9 0.8 76.3 69.8 10.0 10.5 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.5 11.0 0.9 77.5 71.1 10.2 10.7 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 10.9 11.0 8.8 0.7 73.1 67.9 9.7 10.2 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.4 11.6 0.6 67.4 63.2 10.3 10.9 11.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 8.6 8.7 7.6 0.7 72.4 67.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.3 11.9 0.7 69.0 64.2 10.1 10.7 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 5.1 5.1 5.5 0.5 68.9 64.8 4.1 4.6 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.6 11.4 0.7 72.4 66.9 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 10.6 10.7 11.6 0.7 70.3 65.4 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.9 11.8 0.8 71.8 66.4 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 10.4 10.6 9.8 0.8 75.8 69.3 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.9 10.9 0.7 68.2 63.6 9.8 10.3 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 9.4 9.5 7.6 0.7 72.7 67.4 8.3 8.8 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.7 11.7 0.8 71.3 65.7 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 9.3 9.5 10.0 1.0 78.3 71.7 8.3 8.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 7.9 7.8 6.8 0.5 69.0 64.7 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.4 12.1 0.7 69.5 64.4 10.2 10.7 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------