***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 23.4 23.6 22.3 1.9 74.3 72.1 20.5 21.7 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 23.1 23.0 22.0 1.4 67.6 66.0 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 22.9 22.8 22.0 1.4 67.3 65.7 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 14.4 15.4 17.9 1.0 63.9 62.7 12.4 14.0 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 21.8 22.2 19.3 0.7 58.7 57.9 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 20.0 19.3 16.0 -0.2 46.8 47.3 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 22.7 22.7 21.8 1.5 69.3 67.5 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 9.3 8.3 16.1 -0.4 44.5 45.1 7.2 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 21.4 21.8 20.3 0.7 59.5 58.5 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 21.3 21.0 17.8 0.1 51.5 51.2 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 21.4 21.2 19.2 0.1 51.7 51.7 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 20.5 19.7 17.3 -0.3 46.0 46.4 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 21.3 20.5 18.3 -0.3 45.9 46.6 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 21.6 22.3 20.2 1.0 62.1 60.8 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 22.6 22.6 20.9 1.3 67.2 65.6 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 21.8 21.5 18.5 0.1 51.0 51.2 19.9 21.4 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 22.3 22.1 21.4 1.4 67.1 65.7 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 20.7 20.3 16.8 -0.1 49.4 49.5 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 22.5 22.5 21.9 1.4 66.9 65.5 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 15.7 14.7 14.2 -0.5 43.7 44.5 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 21.6 22.3 21.3 1.0 62.3 61.1 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 22.8 22.8 21.5 1.5 68.0 66.5 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 21.7 22.8 21.8 1.4 66.6 65.2 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 21.2 21.5 19.9 0.7 58.7 57.7 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 22.7 22.6 20.5 1.3 67.3 65.8 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 20.5 19.4 16.2 -0.6 42.7 43.6 18.5 20.0 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 22.7 22.8 21.5 1.7 71.8 69.8 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 21.6 22.4 19.0 0.9 62.7 61.6 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.0 15.9 -0.2 47.0 47.4 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 22.9 22.8 22.1 1.6 69.6 67.8 19.7 21.1 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------