***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 23.8 24.5 22.6 2.2 76.4 67.8 20.7 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 23.5 23.8 22.4 1.8 71.2 64.7 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 23.7 24.2 22.6 2.1 73.5 65.9 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 16.5 17.1 19.5 2.1 75.5 66.9 13.5 14.9 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 23.7 24.0 20.5 1.9 71.7 64.8 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 22.2 22.6 18.2 2.0 73.0 65.2 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 23.1 23.6 22.3 1.9 72.7 65.4 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.3 11.3 18.3 1.6 68.3 62.2 8.3 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 23.1 23.5 21.3 2.0 72.7 65.6 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 23.0 23.2 19.5 1.9 70.9 64.1 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.4 23.5 20.6 1.7 69.2 63.0 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.3 22.2 19.4 1.5 67.6 61.6 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.3 23.1 19.6 1.4 66.7 60.8 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 23.4 23.7 20.9 1.9 71.5 64.6 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 23.7 24.4 21.6 2.3 77.6 68.1 20.7 22.1 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.9 19.9 1.6 68.9 62.4 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 22.8 23.0 22.0 1.7 70.8 64.4 20.0 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 22.5 22.7 18.7 1.8 70.6 63.7 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 23.1 23.4 22.4 1.8 71.0 64.5 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.6 16.1 1.5 67.2 61.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 23.4 23.8 22.1 2.0 72.9 65.6 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 23.5 23.6 21.9 1.8 70.9 64.3 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 23.4 23.7 22.4 1.9 71.4 64.8 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 23.0 23.3 20.9 2.0 72.6 65.3 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 23.4 23.9 20.9 2.0 74.9 66.5 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.6 22.3 18.5 1.3 65.5 59.9 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 23.2 23.8 21.8 2.1 75.9 67.4 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 23.6 24.2 20.3 2.2 75.7 66.8 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 17.5 17.5 17.7 1.6 68.3 62.2 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 23.3 23.8 22.5 2.0 73.2 65.9 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------