***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.8 22.7 1.2 66.2 59.0 22.2 23.5 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.7 22.4 0.9 61.3 56.1 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.2 23.0 1.3 66.7 59.9 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.7 20.3 1.2 66.5 60.2 15.0 16.4 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.4 25.1 20.9 1.2 65.8 59.8 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.0 23.7 18.7 1.4 67.2 60.9 21.2 22.4 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 23.9 24.2 22.3 0.9 61.2 55.7 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.6 19.1 1.1 63.2 58.2 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.8 24.7 21.3 1.4 67.5 60.7 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.5 24.2 20.0 1.3 66.2 60.1 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.5 20.7 1.2 64.7 59.0 22.1 23.4 24.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 23.2 23.5 20.3 1.1 62.7 57.6 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.2 24.5 19.4 1.0 62.5 57.3 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.8 20.8 1.2 64.6 59.2 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 24.2 25.2 21.4 1.4 68.9 61.6 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.6 25.3 20.2 1.2 64.6 58.8 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.7 22.1 0.8 60.0 55.1 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.9 19.5 1.3 66.3 60.3 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.8 24.3 22.6 1.0 62.8 57.4 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 18.8 16.5 1.0 62.4 57.8 16.5 17.8 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.0 24.8 22.2 1.3 67.0 60.2 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.6 22.0 0.9 62.1 56.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.9 22.6 1.2 64.8 59.2 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 24.5 24.4 21.1 1.4 67.7 61.2 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.8 20.9 1.2 66.4 59.3 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.5 23.8 19.3 0.9 61.2 56.4 21.7 23.0 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.9 24.6 21.8 1.2 66.0 58.7 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.2 25.1 20.7 1.4 67.5 61.0 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.8 18.3 1.1 63.8 58.8 16.4 17.8 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 24.2 24.6 22.5 1.0 63.1 57.2 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------