***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 23.9 24.6 22.6 1.5 79.2 69.7 21.6 22.7 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 24.0 24.1 22.3 1.1 70.8 64.5 21.7 22.7 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 23.9 24.3 22.7 1.3 75.4 67.2 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.9 19.5 1.2 75.5 66.7 14.5 15.5 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.2 24.0 20.4 1.0 70.9 63.6 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 22.3 22.2 17.9 0.9 68.4 62.2 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 23.6 23.7 22.3 1.2 72.5 65.3 21.4 22.4 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.3 18.1 0.6 62.0 57.6 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.6 21.0 1.1 72.7 64.8 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 22.6 23.1 19.3 0.9 68.0 61.5 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.8 23.2 20.3 0.8 66.1 60.3 21.5 22.4 23.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.1 19.3 0.6 61.8 57.4 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 22.9 23.1 19.2 0.6 61.5 57.2 21.7 22.5 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 23.7 23.9 20.7 1.1 71.9 64.8 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 23.9 24.4 21.4 1.4 78.6 69.0 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.9 19.7 0.8 65.8 60.0 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 23.3 23.3 22.0 1.1 70.2 64.1 21.0 22.1 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 22.7 22.6 18.6 0.9 67.7 61.3 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 23.5 23.6 22.4 1.1 71.3 65.0 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.4 15.8 0.5 61.3 57.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 23.7 24.0 21.9 1.2 74.0 65.8 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 23.9 24.0 21.9 1.1 71.7 65.6 21.5 22.6 23.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 23.8 24.1 22.4 1.2 72.8 66.2 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 23.2 23.4 20.7 1.2 72.8 65.2 21.3 22.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 23.7 24.2 20.8 1.3 76.8 67.5 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.2 18.4 0.5 59.1 55.5 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 23.5 24.1 21.8 1.4 78.5 68.8 21.5 22.4 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 23.8 24.2 20.2 1.2 75.3 66.6 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.5 17.5 0.7 64.0 59.0 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 23.8 24.0 22.5 1.2 73.7 66.2 21.5 22.5 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------