***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 6.8 9.4 20.4 161.9 80.2 68.1 2.0 3.6 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 7.6 8.5 16.6 138.7 74.9 63.0 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.4 13.2 21.1 164.7 80.5 67.7 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 14.4 21.0 28.1 190.3 84.7 73.4 4.9 8.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 9.9 15.3 24.2 188.5 84.4 71.9 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 14.0 24.0 31.9 210.0 88.6 80.6 3.2 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 7.4 8.1 15.8 126.8 71.7 62.1 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 20.5 30.4 34.4 200.2 87.0 78.3 6.9 11.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.1 15.2 23.6 178.2 83.1 71.6 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 11.1 16.9 33.2 193.1 85.7 75.2 3.5 6.1 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 10.2 18.0 27.7 201.9 86.4 73.2 2.1 4.6 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 14.3 22.6 27.9 201.0 86.6 76.9 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 14.3 22.5 28.8 203.1 86.9 75.2 4.5 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 14.2 18.0 28.0 160.5 79.9 69.6 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.1 15.8 23.2 171.3 80.9 67.4 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 11.9 19.0 26.5 199.3 86.3 75.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 7.3 7.5 15.7 121.9 70.3 61.8 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 13.2 19.3 31.8 180.9 84.1 74.4 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 7.4 8.6 17.5 145.3 76.6 64.7 2.6 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 13.0 18.5 33.2 182.7 84.4 75.6 4.4 7.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 8.5 12.0 22.2 170.2 81.7 69.1 2.6 4.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 7.9 8.8 16.9 129.2 72.4 63.6 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 9.0 10.7 19.3 149.3 77.5 65.7 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 12.0 16.5 26.5 170.0 81.9 70.5 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 9.4 12.4 22.0 160.6 79.7 66.6 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 13.5 20.8 28.0 198.5 86.3 79.1 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.5 9.3 20.2 151.9 77.8 66.1 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 11.8 18.8 28.3 197.4 85.6 73.6 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 18.5 26.7 31.4 174.5 83.0 73.9 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 6.1 7.2 17.4 143.6 76.2 64.0 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------