***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.3 17.6 106.0 64.7 49.1 5.4 9.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.7 13.0 15.4 104.1 64.0 50.1 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.1 12.4 16.9 101.3 62.8 48.4 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.4 18.1 18.8 93.5 59.6 47.7 7.6 13.6 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.5 14.3 19.6 105.6 64.1 51.5 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.9 13.6 18.3 86.3 53.6 45.2 6.6 12.1 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 14.0 15.6 105.5 64.8 50.7 5.8 9.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.4 23.2 16.5 85.6 55.1 43.5 11.4 20.1 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.0 15.0 19.4 102.8 62.8 49.6 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.6 14.8 18.6 92.9 59.1 46.4 6.5 11.4 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.2 17.1 94.2 59.2 46.9 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 7.7 13.9 15.1 87.2 55.8 44.1 7.6 12.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.8 17.9 91.9 57.9 45.9 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.9 18.0 21.4 101.3 62.3 49.4 6.3 12.0 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.8 17.9 93.3 60.8 48.2 4.6 8.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.9 12.0 17.6 92.5 57.8 46.5 5.9 9.7 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.5 15.1 13.3 91.3 59.5 47.6 6.1 11.2 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 16.0 20.6 95.3 59.0 46.8 6.9 12.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 18.3 15.8 101.9 62.9 49.6 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.5 13.9 19.6 89.8 55.5 45.5 7.7 12.2 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.9 14.0 18.7 104.2 63.6 49.4 5.8 9.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 6.4 12.4 13.5 86.2 56.4 45.7 6.8 10.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.9 16.9 17.1 102.8 63.4 50.9 6.8 11.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.5 16.5 20.2 100.7 61.7 48.6 6.0 11.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.7 16.5 21.1 104.8 63.7 50.4 6.2 11.0 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.6 13.2 19.2 106.4 64.2 49.3 5.4 9.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.9 15.7 19.4 105.2 64.0 50.0 6.7 11.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.3 10.9 17.9 92.3 59.5 47.4 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 18.4 21.1 95.7 58.8 47.7 7.6 13.9 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.9 16.1 106.9 65.1 50.7 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------