***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.9 17.0 102.6 64.1 49.6 3.8 7.4 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.3 15.2 101.4 63.8 51.3 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.7 16.6 100.6 63.5 48.9 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.6 13.6 17.3 89.3 58.4 42.9 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.3 17.2 92.8 59.7 44.3 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.8 17.4 85.6 54.9 42.0 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.4 15.2 102.6 64.2 51.5 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 9.2 17.6 17.0 84.1 55.0 43.3 9.2 15.4 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.1 18.0 94.0 60.3 45.3 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.7 12.2 18.6 86.1 56.3 44.1 5.3 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.5 15.5 90.4 59.1 43.3 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.3 9.1 14.5 84.7 56.1 42.2 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.6 15.7 82.3 54.2 40.8 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.4 20.1 86.5 56.6 45.5 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.8 16.1 90.8 60.8 43.2 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.3 9.3 15.2 83.0 55.2 40.3 4.4 8.0 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.7 12.0 15.0 104.4 64.7 52.4 3.4 7.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 13.7 19.3 80.8 53.7 44.0 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.3 15.5 98.1 62.5 49.9 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.4 13.1 19.1 83.5 53.7 45.1 6.6 11.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.3 17.5 99.9 63.0 46.7 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.2 13.5 15.9 97.7 62.3 49.9 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.1 15.9 92.8 60.5 47.7 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.5 13.1 18.3 87.8 57.2 45.0 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.5 12.8 19.0 101.2 63.1 47.8 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.1 15.6 88.1 57.6 44.1 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.1 12.7 18.4 104.0 64.5 50.2 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.7 16.2 84.2 56.8 41.6 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.6 15.0 19.1 80.3 52.9 43.6 8.0 13.8 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.4 12.1 15.6 99.4 63.3 50.4 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------