***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.5 19.5 14.4 85.8 59.0 47.4 8.8 15.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.8 12.9 12.6 81.2 56.6 44.3 6.7 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.7 19.2 14.8 92.7 61.5 50.1 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.3 18.6 16.8 93.0 60.9 48.5 8.1 13.9 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.7 21.8 17.2 100.0 63.2 50.7 8.1 14.8 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.6 16.5 21.7 102.1 62.6 48.6 6.4 11.5 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.2 12.1 12.5 76.8 54.9 42.3 6.3 10.5 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.1 26.3 19.2 100.7 62.0 49.9 11.2 19.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.4 16.6 18.0 102.2 64.0 51.6 6.2 11.0 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.3 21.6 20.3 101.2 62.7 50.5 9.7 15.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.1 14.0 16.3 101.0 63.1 50.2 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.6 15.5 16.3 99.7 62.0 48.9 6.5 11.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.6 12.9 18.0 93.7 59.6 46.6 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.6 20.9 21.0 97.8 62.4 51.0 8.5 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.7 11.6 14.8 85.9 59.5 44.0 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.3 14.5 16.9 95.9 61.0 48.1 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.6 10.4 11.7 72.3 53.2 41.9 5.9 9.5 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.1 17.9 22.5 102.2 63.0 50.8 7.9 12.9 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.7 13.3 86.2 58.7 46.4 7.8 13.3 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.1 17.9 22.0 101.5 61.8 49.8 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.5 17.6 16.4 97.4 62.9 51.4 7.1 12.3 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 7.3 11.9 12.7 78.1 55.0 43.9 7.4 10.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.0 15.0 14.8 93.1 61.6 48.7 7.0 11.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.4 21.7 20.1 104.0 64.3 52.7 8.8 14.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.2 16.1 16.3 87.0 58.9 47.7 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.6 11.7 16.5 94.8 60.4 45.7 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.2 18.9 15.5 84.9 58.4 46.5 9.0 14.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.9 15.2 16.8 94.1 61.4 47.4 6.9 11.3 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.6 25.6 22.4 101.0 62.2 50.2 11.4 18.7 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.0 13.3 84.6 58.1 45.7 8.4 13.2 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------