***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 52.5 58.5 69.4 111.0 64.6 56.7 35.8 47.0 59.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 44.4 46.0 59.7 104.3 60.3 54.3 28.7 39.1 50.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 54.2 59.9 69.3 111.9 65.2 57.5 35.7 47.6 60.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 80.5 75.7 81.1 111.9 65.2 58.1 49.1 62.4 76.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 71.4 68.8 78.1 116.5 67.9 59.6 38.8 51.9 66.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 58.8 66.7 89.3 114.6 67.7 57.4 41.8 53.0 65.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.8 45.1 59.0 101.2 58.3 52.0 28.0 39.1 51.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 95.2 104.6 87.0 114.9 67.3 58.7 73.6 88.0 103.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 53.6 60.8 78.9 114.7 67.0 58.5 36.2 47.3 60.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 63.7 72.4 90.7 115.1 67.5 59.0 44.2 56.8 70.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 58.3 57.7 76.6 117.4 68.7 59.6 34.1 44.3 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 55.1 60.4 73.8 114.1 66.7 57.8 41.8 50.7 60.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 48.1 52.9 80.4 111.8 65.3 55.9 34.8 43.7 53.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 68.8 74.0 90.5 108.7 63.1 56.4 46.8 61.1 77.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 31.7 46.7 71.9 106.1 61.8 54.3 32.3 40.4 49.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 50.9 55.6 76.1 111.6 65.1 56.6 36.6 46.0 56.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 47.5 44.1 55.7 96.0 54.3 50.3 28.3 40.6 55.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 65.7 71.7 94.1 110.8 64.8 57.5 46.8 59.2 72.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 57.3 60.3 62.1 105.7 61.2 55.2 38.6 50.9 64.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 43.1 68.4 93.8 111.1 65.2 57.8 43.6 55.7 69.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 50.1 57.3 74.8 114.4 66.8 58.2 32.9 44.1 56.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.6 46.2 59.0 96.3 54.3 51.3 32.4 43.2 55.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 51.2 54.2 67.0 107.2 62.2 55.8 32.4 44.4 57.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 64.4 71.7 85.1 112.1 65.3 57.7 45.1 57.8 72.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 56.2 61.6 78.4 109.9 63.9 55.9 37.2 49.4 63.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 48.1 56.4 79.4 117.9 69.2 59.2 33.7 43.2 53.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 56.2 60.1 73.5 108.6 63.0 55.4 38.4 50.0 63.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 34.5 52.6 79.2 111.7 65.2 57.7 35.2 43.7 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 84.3 88.8 94.0 109.3 63.7 57.1 66.6 78.5 90.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 48.7 51.5 62.4 106.4 61.8 55.1 29.5 41.5 55.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------