***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.9 10.2 10.8 0.1 52.7 52.6 9.1 10.1 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 8.9 10.5 10.8 0.2 54.4 53.7 9.3 10.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.6 11.9 10.5 0.1 51.4 51.7 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.4 6.7 8.4 0.0 49.1 50.2 5.6 6.8 7.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.4 8.4 0.0 50.5 51.1 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.7 7.0 0.3 55.9 55.0 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 9.0 10.4 10.9 0.3 55.0 54.0 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.7 6.9 0.2 53.8 53.5 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.3 8.8 0.0 51.0 51.3 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.4 7.4 0.1 52.4 52.3 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.0 8.1 0.1 52.5 52.7 8.0 8.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.5 7.6 0.1 53.1 53.3 6.6 7.4 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.6 7.2 0.1 53.0 53.3 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.0 9.7 8.7 -0.2 46.0 47.8 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.3 8.9 -0.1 48.8 49.9 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.8 7.8 0.1 52.0 52.4 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 9.4 10.7 10.6 0.2 54.9 54.1 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.4 6.7 0.0 50.1 50.8 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 9.1 10.3 10.6 0.1 52.9 52.7 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.4 5.1 0.1 53.0 52.6 3.5 4.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.4 9.9 0.1 51.0 51.3 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 8.7 9.8 10.4 0.1 52.7 52.9 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.9 9.8 10.2 0.0 49.8 50.6 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.4 8.5 -0.1 48.4 49.5 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.8 9.2 0.0 50.7 51.2 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.3 7.3 0.1 52.2 52.3 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.7 10.5 10.0 0.1 52.0 52.1 9.1 10.3 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.2 8.7 0.0 49.2 50.2 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 6.8 6.1 0.0 50.8 51.2 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.0 10.5 10.9 0.2 53.9 53.4 9.3 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------