***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 11.2 12.3 13.5 0.0 49.6 48.7 11.4 12.3 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 10.9 12.1 13.5 0.0 50.6 50.0 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 12.4 13.5 13.1 -0.1 47.6 47.7 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.0 8.0 10.8 -0.4 42.5 44.1 7.3 8.5 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.6 10.9 -0.2 46.0 47.0 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.6 9.3 0.1 51.4 50.8 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.1 12.2 13.6 0.1 51.2 50.3 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.2 9.1 -0.1 48.7 49.4 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.5 11.3 -0.1 47.7 48.2 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.4 9.7 -0.1 47.7 48.8 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.2 10.4 -0.2 46.9 48.1 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.5 10.0 -0.1 48.7 49.3 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.9 9.5 0.0 49.8 50.1 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 11.1 11.9 11.1 -0.3 44.5 46.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 11.5 12.1 11.2 -0.5 39.9 41.9 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.6 10.1 -0.1 47.7 48.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 11.3 12.4 13.3 0.1 51.1 50.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.0 9.0 -0.1 47.5 49.0 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 11.1 12.2 13.3 0.0 49.3 49.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.3 7.4 0.0 50.3 50.7 5.4 6.3 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 10.6 11.4 12.4 -0.2 46.8 47.2 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.6 13.1 0.0 49.9 49.5 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 10.6 11.7 12.8 -0.2 47.0 47.6 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.4 11.0 -0.2 45.9 47.3 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.8 11.7 -0.2 45.3 46.1 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.3 9.8 0.0 49.7 50.2 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.9 12.0 12.6 -0.1 48.3 48.0 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 9.6 10.3 11.0 -0.4 42.1 43.7 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.3 8.3 -0.1 48.5 49.6 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 11.1 12.3 13.6 0.0 50.2 49.5 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------