***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 19.8 19.9 19.1 -2.0 23.0 25.0 20.8 22.1 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 19.2 19.3 19.0 -2.1 22.8 24.8 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 19.2 19.2 18.9 -2.4 20.2 22.1 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 11.6 11.5 16.5 -2.1 20.6 22.9 12.9 14.4 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 19.0 18.9 17.2 -2.5 18.2 20.4 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 16.9 16.8 14.7 -2.7 17.9 19.9 18.4 20.0 21.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 19.2 19.3 19.1 -1.9 24.6 26.7 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 5.8 5.7 15.0 -2.8 17.1 18.8 7.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 18.5 18.4 18.1 -2.5 18.6 20.7 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 18.4 18.2 16.2 -2.8 17.4 19.3 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 18.6 18.4 16.8 -2.6 17.8 19.9 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 17.3 17.3 15.8 -2.7 17.5 19.3 18.9 20.4 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 18.2 17.9 15.9 -2.8 16.9 18.8 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 18.5 18.1 17.3 -3.1 15.3 17.0 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 19.5 19.3 18.1 -1.9 22.5 24.9 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 18.8 18.6 16.4 -2.6 17.5 19.6 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 18.4 18.5 18.7 -2.1 22.9 25.1 19.5 20.9 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 17.6 17.4 15.2 -3.1 16.1 17.9 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 18.7 18.8 18.9 -2.3 21.0 23.0 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 12.2 11.8 12.8 -3.3 14.6 16.3 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 18.9 18.8 18.7 -2.5 19.1 21.2 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 18.7 18.7 18.5 -2.4 20.1 22.4 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 18.8 18.6 18.6 -2.6 18.3 20.2 20.2 21.6 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 18.4 18.2 17.2 -3.0 16.6 18.4 19.8 21.2 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 19.2 19.1 17.7 -2.2 20.9 23.1 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 17.2 17.0 15.0 -2.7 16.9 18.6 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 19.2 19.3 18.5 -2.0 22.6 24.7 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 19.1 18.9 17.1 -2.2 20.5 22.9 20.1 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 12.2 11.9 14.3 -3.2 15.2 17.0 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 19.1 19.2 19.1 -2.0 23.0 24.9 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------