***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 20.4 22.6 20.9 0.3 54.3 53.4 20.6 22.2 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.4 22.7 21.0 0.4 55.5 53.9 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 20.6 22.6 21.0 0.3 53.8 53.0 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 13.4 15.1 19.0 0.0 49.6 50.1 13.7 15.1 16.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.6 22.5 19.2 0.1 50.8 50.9 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.5 21.0 17.3 0.1 51.9 51.1 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 20.1 22.4 21.0 0.4 56.2 54.3 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.2 10.2 17.7 0.1 52.0 51.9 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.9 19.6 0.1 51.6 51.6 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.9 18.4 0.2 52.3 52.1 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.2 22.1 18.7 0.1 51.1 51.1 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.2 21.1 18.4 0.0 50.4 50.7 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 20.1 22.0 17.9 0.0 50.4 50.3 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.3 22.3 19.4 0.2 52.8 52.3 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 20.6 22.2 19.2 -0.1 48.6 49.4 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 20.7 22.6 18.4 0.0 50.4 50.4 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 19.7 21.9 20.8 0.3 55.1 53.5 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.5 21.5 17.9 0.3 53.5 52.8 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 20.0 22.2 21.0 0.3 54.6 53.4 20.2 21.8 23.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.7 15.8 0.3 54.2 53.3 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 20.3 22.2 20.3 0.1 51.9 51.8 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.2 22.3 20.7 0.2 53.1 52.2 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.4 20.7 0.2 53.4 52.8 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 19.9 21.9 19.4 0.2 53.3 52.7 20.2 21.6 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 20.5 22.2 19.3 0.1 51.6 51.5 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 19.4 21.4 17.7 0.1 51.2 51.0 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 20.3 22.2 20.2 0.2 53.5 52.8 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 20.6 22.2 19.1 -0.1 49.0 49.6 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.5 17.0 0.3 54.2 53.3 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 20.2 22.5 21.1 0.4 55.4 54.0 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------