***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 23.8 23.3 23.8 0.1 51.5 50.5 21.6 23.2 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 22.1 23.9 23.9 0.2 52.3 51.1 22.3 23.7 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 21.9 23.8 23.9 0.1 51.7 50.8 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.2 21.8 -0.2 47.1 47.3 14.8 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 21.9 23.8 22.0 -0.1 49.3 49.2 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 20.7 22.6 20.2 0.2 52.1 51.0 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 21.8 23.5 23.8 0.2 52.1 50.9 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.3 20.7 0.1 51.6 51.0 10.7 12.1 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.3 23.1 22.5 0.0 50.1 50.0 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.5 23.4 21.3 0.1 51.1 50.7 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.5 21.7 0.1 50.8 50.3 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 20.8 22.6 21.4 0.1 51.1 50.6 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.8 20.9 0.0 50.6 50.1 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.7 23.7 22.3 0.1 50.8 50.4 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 22.6 23.9 21.9 -0.4 45.1 45.6 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.3 24.2 21.4 0.0 50.5 50.0 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 21.5 23.2 23.6 0.1 51.0 50.3 21.8 23.1 24.3 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.2 22.9 20.8 0.1 51.8 51.3 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 21.5 23.3 23.9 0.2 52.2 51.0 21.8 23.2 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.4 18.2 18.6 0.1 51.6 51.0 16.6 18.0 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.4 23.2 0.0 49.9 49.7 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.5 23.5 0.0 49.9 49.6 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 21.8 23.7 23.7 0.1 51.7 50.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 21.3 23.1 22.3 0.1 51.6 51.1 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.4 22.1 -0.1 48.3 48.2 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.1 20.7 0.1 50.9 50.4 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.3 22.9 0.0 50.0 49.4 21.9 23.3 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.9 21.9 -0.2 47.1 47.2 22.7 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 16.2 18.1 19.8 0.1 51.7 51.3 16.5 17.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 21.8 23.7 24.0 0.2 52.6 51.2 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------