***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 21.5 22.1 21.5 -0.5 39.1 41.4 21.7 22.8 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.5 22.3 21.5 -0.5 39.7 41.6 21.8 22.9 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 21.8 22.2 21.5 -0.6 37.2 39.7 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.4 14.7 19.3 -0.7 33.8 36.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 21.9 22.1 19.7 -0.7 34.3 37.5 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 20.3 20.7 17.7 -0.6 35.6 38.6 20.5 21.4 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 21.3 22.0 21.5 -0.4 40.7 42.4 21.5 22.5 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.0 18.0 -0.7 35.2 38.4 9.8 10.8 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 22.8 21.6 20.2 -0.7 35.0 38.3 21.4 22.4 23.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 21.3 21.6 18.9 -0.7 34.9 38.1 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.5 21.7 19.2 -0.7 34.8 38.0 21.6 22.5 23.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 20.6 20.9 18.8 -0.7 34.9 38.2 20.8 21.6 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 21.5 21.9 18.4 -0.7 34.2 37.6 21.8 22.6 23.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 21.6 21.8 19.9 -0.9 32.6 36.0 21.8 22.8 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 21.8 22.1 19.9 -0.7 33.1 36.1 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 22.0 22.3 18.9 -0.7 34.4 37.6 22.3 23.2 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 20.9 21.5 21.2 -0.6 38.5 40.6 21.2 22.2 23.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.1 18.2 -0.8 34.5 37.9 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.2 21.8 21.4 -0.6 38.3 40.5 21.4 22.4 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 15.9 16.2 16.0 -0.8 34.5 37.9 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.5 21.8 20.9 -0.7 34.9 38.1 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 21.4 21.8 21.1 -0.7 35.6 38.2 21.7 22.7 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 21.6 22.0 21.2 -0.7 35.8 38.5 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.7 21.4 19.8 -0.8 34.3 37.5 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 21.4 21.8 19.9 -0.7 35.0 38.1 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 20.9 21.2 18.1 -0.7 35.5 38.8 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 21.3 21.9 20.7 -0.6 37.6 40.2 21.6 22.5 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 21.8 22.1 19.6 -0.7 33.4 36.5 22.1 22.9 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 15.8 16.1 17.3 -0.8 34.5 38.0 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 21.4 22.1 21.6 -0.5 40.0 41.9 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------