***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 8.6 12.3 24.4 192.3 85.6 79.9 1.9 3.7 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 8.4 12.5 24.6 189.0 84.9 79.3 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 12.2 19.9 26.3 209.0 88.3 82.1 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 16.0 25.0 30.1 206.3 88.2 82.7 4.3 7.7 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 13.0 26.3 36.3 248.7 93.5 89.7 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 16.4 31.2 38.4 227.8 92.8 87.1 3.6 6.8 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 8.9 12.3 23.4 177.0 83.2 77.4 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 24.3 35.4 31.7 190.6 86.1 81.1 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 13.4 26.7 34.9 254.8 93.2 89.6 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 13.8 22.7 35.9 221.8 90.1 86.1 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 13.4 23.8 31.1 224.4 90.3 86.1 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 16.0 24.1 28.3 199.6 86.9 81.8 3.9 7.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 16.0 26.3 34.2 209.8 89.9 84.7 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 16.5 27.1 34.7 219.1 90.0 84.7 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 11.8 17.8 26.5 179.0 84.0 75.0 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 14.0 26.7 34.3 232.3 92.1 87.6 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 9.8 14.5 24.2 185.9 83.8 77.7 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 16.8 26.9 37.2 208.7 88.8 84.4 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 10.1 15.4 26.7 205.4 87.3 81.9 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 14.0 18.8 34.4 174.8 84.5 79.5 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 10.0 17.0 29.5 229.3 90.4 85.4 2.4 4.4 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 11.2 19.0 27.8 208.6 87.9 81.0 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 11.9 19.5 30.0 228.3 90.4 85.9 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 13.9 23.6 34.2 222.9 90.6 85.6 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 11.3 19.7 32.5 211.9 89.3 84.8 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 13.4 20.0 30.1 187.4 85.9 80.1 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 10.1 15.0 28.1 192.8 85.9 80.7 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 11.8 19.3 29.5 203.6 87.9 80.9 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 21.4 33.3 35.6 195.8 87.5 82.3 4.7 9.1 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 7.5 11.6 24.5 193.2 85.8 80.2 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------