***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.8 7.9 11.4 70.5 48.0 39.6 4.8 8.3 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.1 8.8 12.1 73.0 49.4 42.2 5.1 8.9 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.6 6.8 10.7 63.5 44.0 38.2 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 6.4 10.0 12.2 66.5 42.4 35.8 6.8 13.0 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.1 8.0 13.3 70.9 45.9 39.9 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.1 14.2 21.6 89.4 54.9 46.9 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.9 8.7 12.5 74.2 50.5 43.1 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 11.2 18.1 15.4 72.5 45.7 38.8 11.9 20.5 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.3 8.2 13.2 69.1 44.8 39.1 5.1 9.8 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.6 9.7 16.5 75.5 47.1 40.5 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.7 9.0 13.2 77.2 50.0 41.3 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 7.0 11.0 12.1 71.8 46.9 38.9 7.3 12.0 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.6 9.6 16.3 81.4 51.8 43.9 5.4 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.5 10.9 14.9 71.7 46.6 40.2 6.3 12.0 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.3 10.0 13.2 78.3 51.9 42.6 5.3 9.4 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.5 9.3 15.6 84.4 53.5 44.9 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.9 11.8 11.8 76.5 52.6 41.3 5.6 10.8 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 11.2 19.3 77.3 46.6 40.8 6.8 12.4 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.9 12.8 11.7 71.5 48.5 41.7 7.4 13.5 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.2 12.0 21.0 78.5 46.8 41.1 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 5.1 8.6 10.7 65.2 44.9 37.9 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.3 11.1 12.1 82.2 54.3 42.9 6.1 9.9 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.2 10.2 11.7 71.1 48.6 42.0 5.8 10.8 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.7 9.4 15.3 71.3 44.9 39.6 5.5 11.3 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.8 11.8 15.5 78.8 50.3 42.5 6.5 11.8 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.5 8.9 12.8 73.4 47.8 39.7 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.3 10.9 14.9 77.0 50.5 42.3 6.2 10.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.9 9.0 13.2 74.5 48.3 39.6 5.1 9.5 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.1 12.9 19.6 76.9 46.1 40.6 7.8 14.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.9 8.0 11.7 69.2 47.1 40.9 4.4 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------