***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.9 19.5 17.2 129.3 72.6 58.8 5.4 9.9 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.0 17.1 117.3 68.8 56.2 4.1 7.4 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.2 19.6 17.2 130.2 72.7 59.0 5.1 9.6 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 18.2 20.5 120.3 69.6 56.7 5.0 9.7 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 16.2 20.1 121.9 70.0 56.2 3.8 8.0 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.5 26.2 108.6 64.9 52.0 4.9 8.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.5 16.8 115.5 68.2 56.5 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.7 23.9 20.6 105.6 63.3 51.3 11.5 17.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.7 16.5 19.5 122.4 70.2 55.3 4.2 8.3 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.0 18.1 22.1 114.3 67.0 54.1 5.5 10.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.5 14.3 19.1 123.9 70.7 55.4 4.1 7.5 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.3 12.0 17.0 108.3 64.8 50.5 5.0 8.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.1 20.6 106.5 64.4 50.5 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.8 18.1 21.3 114.5 67.5 55.4 5.4 10.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.0 8.5 19.4 127.1 72.0 56.9 2.7 4.7 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.9 20.1 117.0 68.3 54.4 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.4 12.7 17.5 116.0 68.4 54.3 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 18.7 23.8 106.4 63.9 53.1 7.6 12.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.9 17.2 121.1 70.0 56.5 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.5 14.8 23.4 93.8 57.7 49.7 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 13.1 13.0 17.2 126.3 71.6 56.6 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.3 17.0 17.7 118.3 69.2 54.2 4.8 9.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.7 15.1 17.5 122.8 70.6 56.7 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.7 18.8 21.4 119.1 68.9 56.6 6.4 11.2 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.8 15.8 21.0 123.6 70.6 57.0 4.2 8.0 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.7 16.3 94.5 59.4 45.7 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.7 16.7 19.4 120.6 69.8 57.2 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 10.9 20.2 120.3 69.8 56.5 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.0 19.3 23.2 101.3 61.9 52.0 8.7 14.2 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 14.4 16.9 121.2 70.1 57.8 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------