***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.3 19.5 12.2 100.3 63.7 50.7 7.8 13.4 20.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.2 13.9 11.8 98.5 63.1 48.8 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.6 16.5 11.6 93.2 61.2 50.3 7.5 12.4 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.7 21.2 15.9 99.5 63.8 50.4 9.2 15.0 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 20.5 22.1 15.0 94.3 62.0 49.8 9.3 15.9 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.1 19.6 92.4 59.2 48.6 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.7 13.0 11.8 99.8 63.1 48.1 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.6 19.7 14.6 83.8 56.1 44.6 9.0 16.4 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.7 13.7 84.3 58.3 46.5 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.7 17.6 15.4 83.4 56.2 45.6 9.3 15.0 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.7 15.0 13.3 94.6 62.1 49.7 6.4 10.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.6 14.2 11.7 86.2 58.6 45.3 6.4 11.1 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.9 14.1 86.8 57.6 46.0 4.9 9.4 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.0 17.7 15.0 91.1 59.0 47.4 8.3 14.0 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.3 12.7 13.7 91.5 60.6 46.9 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.7 14.0 13.9 91.9 60.1 48.1 5.9 10.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.8 11.6 98.2 63.1 47.7 5.0 8.8 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 12.7 16.8 81.6 54.1 44.5 6.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.1 16.7 11.7 95.9 62.4 49.5 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.0 12.9 17.1 79.2 51.7 41.1 7.5 12.3 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 11.7 86.8 59.2 47.0 7.1 12.2 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.6 12.7 12.1 95.0 62.1 48.3 6.5 9.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.5 12.1 93.2 61.4 49.8 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.6 15.5 14.6 87.8 57.8 48.1 7.1 12.4 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.4 17.1 16.7 104.2 65.0 52.6 6.1 11.0 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.0 10.7 11.2 79.5 54.9 41.6 5.2 9.2 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.5 20.6 15.7 105.5 65.3 52.5 8.4 13.9 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.7 15.9 14.9 94.8 61.6 48.1 7.4 11.9 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.8 19.6 16.7 80.5 53.1 43.2 10.5 17.9 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.4 15.7 11.8 98.9 63.1 49.8 6.1 10.7 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------