***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 13.3 14.3 3.9 97.1 94.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 11.3 13.4 13.5 3.1 93.5 89.9 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 13.1 15.6 13.6 3.3 95.9 92.9 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 7.9 10.3 11.3 3.2 95.1 92.7 4.8 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 9.6 12.0 11.4 3.1 96.3 93.8 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 7.9 10.3 9.2 3.3 97.5 95.2 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 11.1 13.3 13.7 3.3 95.0 91.9 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 3.4 6.0 9.4 3.2 97.1 94.9 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 10.2 12.7 11.6 3.0 97.3 94.9 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 10.1 12.4 10.1 3.1 97.0 94.6 7.7 8.5 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 9.5 11.6 10.6 3.0 96.8 94.4 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 7.9 9.9 9.8 3.1 96.2 93.9 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 8.8 10.5 9.2 2.6 94.2 91.0 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 10.6 12.1 11.5 2.7 93.3 90.4 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 10.8 13.1 12.5 3.3 97.3 95.2 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 10.5 12.7 10.0 2.8 95.8 92.8 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 11.1 12.4 13.0 2.9 91.6 87.9 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 7.9 10.0 9.1 2.8 96.1 93.5 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 11.0 12.6 13.3 3.0 93.0 89.3 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 4.9 6.7 6.9 2.8 95.5 92.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 10.2 12.6 13.2 3.3 96.9 94.2 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 10.1 11.2 12.7 2.5 89.6 85.7 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 10.5 12.1 12.8 2.8 92.8 89.1 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 9.9 11.6 11.2 2.8 95.1 92.1 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 10.9 13.5 13.2 3.7 96.4 93.8 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 8.8 10.2 9.2 3.0 93.3 91.2 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 12.2 16.1 13.8 3.9 97.1 94.7 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 8.7 10.5 11.5 3.1 95.9 93.4 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 7.9 10.3 8.2 2.7 95.9 93.3 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 11.5 13.9 13.8 3.3 95.0 91.8 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------