***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 10.8 11.8 -0.7 36.8 41.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.5 10.7 11.6 -0.8 34.0 39.2 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.5 11.5 -0.7 35.7 40.5 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 6.7 7.2 9.6 -0.8 33.3 39.1 7.2 8.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.0 9.4 9.5 -0.6 36.6 41.3 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 7.8 8.2 7.5 -0.5 36.3 41.2 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 10.4 10.7 11.6 -0.8 34.2 39.5 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.3 7.7 -0.4 39.4 43.2 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.5 10.0 -0.5 38.7 42.7 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 9.8 10.3 8.4 -0.5 38.4 42.6 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.1 9.0 -0.5 38.0 42.4 9.9 10.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 7.7 8.3 8.5 -0.4 40.8 44.2 7.9 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.7 8.0 -0.4 39.8 43.4 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.6 9.7 -0.8 31.6 37.7 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 10.5 10.7 10.1 -0.7 33.3 39.4 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 10.2 10.7 8.6 -0.5 37.8 42.1 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.6 10.8 11.4 -0.9 32.7 38.3 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.1 8.5 7.7 -0.6 36.5 41.2 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.6 10.8 11.5 -0.8 34.2 39.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.7 5.9 -0.5 38.3 41.9 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.4 11.0 -0.6 38.0 42.2 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.1 11.3 -0.8 33.0 38.4 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.2 -0.8 33.7 38.9 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 9.9 10.2 9.5 -0.7 34.3 39.7 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.1 10.4 10.3 -0.8 34.2 39.9 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 8.8 9.3 8.0 -0.5 38.8 42.5 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.4 10.8 11.1 -0.7 35.6 41.0 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 8.6 8.9 9.7 -0.7 33.7 39.4 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.8 7.4 6.9 -0.5 36.8 41.3 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 10.5 10.8 11.7 -0.8 34.9 39.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------