***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 11.3 12.5 0.6 70.0 64.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.3 12.1 0.4 62.0 58.9 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.1 12.1 0.5 66.4 61.7 11.9 12.5 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.2 10.1 0.5 67.3 62.7 6.7 7.5 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.8 10.1 0.5 67.4 62.5 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 8.6 8.8 8.1 0.6 73.1 66.7 7.6 8.1 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.3 12.2 0.4 64.1 60.7 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 3.7 3.8 8.3 0.6 71.3 65.7 2.5 3.1 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.6 10.4 0.5 67.1 62.1 9.7 10.1 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.6 8.9 0.5 69.1 63.6 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.4 9.5 0.5 69.7 64.3 9.4 9.8 10.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 8.6 8.7 8.9 0.6 71.3 65.9 7.6 8.1 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.8 8.4 0.5 67.5 62.9 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.0 10.3 0.3 60.2 56.8 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.6 10.9 0.6 71.6 66.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.1 9.1 0.5 69.4 64.2 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.4 11.8 0.3 58.9 56.6 10.6 11.1 11.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.8 8.2 0.5 66.5 61.5 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.2 12.0 0.4 61.7 58.3 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.3 6.3 0.4 64.8 60.4 4.3 4.8 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 11.6 0.5 67.6 62.5 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.5 11.7 0.2 55.9 54.2 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.8 11.7 0.3 61.2 57.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.6 10.1 0.4 63.8 59.4 9.7 10.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.1 11.1 0.6 68.8 63.8 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.6 8.4 0.5 67.6 63.4 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 11.8 11.8 11.9 0.6 70.4 65.2 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.5 10.4 0.5 69.3 64.3 8.6 9.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.9 7.4 0.4 66.1 61.1 6.7 7.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.4 12.3 0.5 64.8 60.9 10.4 10.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------