***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 21.7 20.4 -0.3 45.4 46.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 23.1 21.9 20.3 -0.4 44.8 46.2 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 23.2 21.9 20.4 -0.5 43.6 45.0 20.9 22.5 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.6 18.4 -0.6 41.2 43.3 13.9 15.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.7 21.7 18.4 -0.8 39.4 41.8 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 19.3 19.9 16.0 -0.9 37.5 40.5 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.7 20.3 -0.3 45.5 46.8 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.1 9.0 16.6 -1.0 37.6 40.4 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 20.1 21.0 18.8 -0.9 39.1 41.5 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 19.9 20.8 17.4 -1.0 37.7 40.5 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.0 17.8 -0.9 38.3 41.0 20.5 22.0 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 19.3 20.2 17.5 -0.9 38.1 40.9 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 20.2 21.1 16.9 -0.9 38.6 41.2 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 20.3 21.4 18.6 -0.9 39.1 41.3 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 23.1 22.0 18.9 -0.4 43.6 45.3 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 20.8 21.7 17.5 -0.9 38.3 41.0 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.1 20.0 -0.4 44.1 45.9 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 19.3 20.3 16.8 -1.1 37.6 40.3 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 20.1 21.4 20.3 -0.4 44.4 45.7 20.4 21.9 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 14.6 15.5 14.6 -1.0 38.5 41.0 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 20.4 21.5 19.7 -0.7 41.3 43.2 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.4 21.6 19.9 -0.6 42.7 44.7 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.7 20.1 -0.6 43.0 44.4 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.9 18.5 -0.9 39.4 41.6 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.8 21.8 18.9 -0.4 44.7 46.0 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.6 16.7 -0.8 39.7 42.0 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.6 21.7 19.7 -0.3 46.1 47.1 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 23.1 21.7 18.5 -0.7 40.0 42.4 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 14.3 15.3 15.8 -1.0 38.0 40.6 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 22.8 21.7 20.4 -0.4 45.3 46.5 20.6 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------