***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 22.8 21.0 -1.1 33.7 37.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 21.9 22.2 20.8 -1.2 32.0 36.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 21.7 22.5 21.1 -1.0 34.7 38.0 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 14.6 15.0 19.2 -1.1 33.6 37.3 15.0 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 22.1 22.7 19.4 -1.0 34.9 38.1 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 20.7 21.4 17.2 -0.8 36.7 39.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 21.4 21.8 20.7 -1.3 30.9 35.9 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.6 17.6 -1.1 34.2 37.3 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.5 22.2 19.8 -1.0 35.6 38.5 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.1 18.4 -1.0 34.8 37.8 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 21.7 22.4 18.8 -1.0 35.3 38.3 22.2 23.7 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 20.9 21.5 18.5 -1.0 35.0 37.9 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 22.0 22.7 18.0 -0.9 35.9 38.3 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 21.5 22.3 19.4 -1.2 33.9 36.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.6 22.6 19.6 -1.1 33.2 37.3 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.1 18.5 -0.9 35.4 38.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 21.1 21.3 20.5 -1.4 30.1 35.4 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.6 17.7 -1.1 34.4 37.2 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.5 21.9 20.9 -1.1 33.4 37.1 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 15.9 16.5 15.3 -1.1 33.2 36.0 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 21.6 22.4 20.6 -1.0 35.4 38.5 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 21.6 21.8 20.5 -1.3 30.5 35.4 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 21.6 22.4 20.8 -1.0 34.8 37.7 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 21.1 21.9 19.4 -1.1 34.7 37.6 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 21.6 22.1 19.5 -1.1 32.9 36.8 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 21.2 22.0 17.7 -0.9 36.2 38.4 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 21.5 22.0 20.2 -1.1 32.5 36.7 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.1 22.5 19.4 -1.0 34.2 37.8 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 15.8 16.5 16.6 -1.1 34.1 36.7 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 21.6 22.1 21.0 -1.1 32.7 36.8 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------