***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 23.1 21.8 -1.3 31.6 35.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 22.0 22.4 21.6 -1.3 30.8 34.8 22.6 23.8 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 21.8 22.4 21.9 -1.3 31.9 35.7 22.4 23.8 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 14.4 14.9 20.2 -1.2 31.9 35.5 15.0 16.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 21.9 22.4 20.4 -1.2 32.6 36.2 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 20.4 21.3 18.3 -1.0 35.5 37.5 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 21.7 22.1 21.5 -1.4 30.1 34.3 22.3 23.5 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 10.1 10.6 18.6 -1.2 32.0 35.3 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 21.2 21.7 20.7 -1.2 32.5 36.1 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 21.3 21.8 19.4 -1.3 32.1 35.6 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 21.5 22.1 19.9 -1.1 33.7 36.9 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 20.6 21.2 19.6 -1.1 33.5 36.4 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 21.7 22.4 19.0 -1.1 34.6 37.0 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 21.7 22.1 20.2 -1.5 29.6 33.7 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 22.4 22.9 20.6 -1.2 31.8 35.5 23.0 24.3 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 22.1 22.8 19.6 -1.1 34.2 37.0 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 21.4 21.7 21.2 -1.4 29.5 34.0 22.0 23.3 24.4 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 21.0 21.4 18.6 -1.4 30.6 34.4 21.6 22.8 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 21.5 22.0 21.7 -1.3 31.3 35.2 22.2 23.4 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 15.9 16.4 16.3 -1.5 29.2 32.9 16.7 18.1 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 21.6 22.1 21.4 -1.3 32.1 35.8 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 21.9 22.2 21.2 -1.5 28.8 33.5 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 21.8 22.4 21.6 -1.3 31.5 35.3 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 21.3 21.7 20.2 -1.4 30.8 34.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 21.6 22.1 20.3 -1.3 30.9 34.8 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 21.0 21.8 18.8 -1.1 34.1 36.5 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 21.5 21.9 21.0 -1.3 30.8 34.8 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 22.3 22.8 20.5 -1.2 32.7 36.1 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 16.0 16.4 17.6 -1.4 29.9 33.7 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 21.7 22.2 21.7 -1.3 31.2 35.1 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------