***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 23.8 21.8 0.2 53.9 51.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.1 21.6 0.1 51.2 50.2 22.0 23.0 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 23.4 23.3 21.8 0.1 53.0 51.0 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.9 19.9 0.1 52.7 51.1 14.8 15.7 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.2 20.1 0.1 51.9 50.4 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 21.8 21.8 18.0 0.3 56.1 53.4 20.7 21.5 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 23.0 22.7 21.5 0.0 50.5 49.9 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.2 10.9 18.3 0.0 50.5 48.8 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 22.9 22.6 20.6 0.0 50.9 49.6 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 22.8 22.5 19.2 0.0 50.1 48.7 21.6 22.5 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.8 19.7 0.1 52.2 50.4 21.7 22.6 23.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 22.0 21.9 19.2 0.1 52.2 50.1 20.9 21.8 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.0 18.9 0.2 54.4 51.9 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.7 20.2 -0.2 46.3 45.8 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 23.4 23.4 20.5 0.2 55.0 52.9 22.3 23.1 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.5 19.4 0.2 53.8 51.6 22.4 23.3 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 22.7 22.3 21.2 -0.1 48.5 48.6 21.3 22.4 23.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 22.3 22.0 18.5 -0.1 48.6 47.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.7 21.7 0.1 51.9 50.3 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.1 16.2 -0.1 48.8 47.2 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.2 22.9 21.4 0.1 52.2 50.5 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.7 21.2 -0.2 46.4 46.7 21.9 22.9 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.1 21.6 0.1 51.5 49.8 22.0 23.0 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 22.7 22.4 20.2 0.0 49.1 47.9 21.5 22.4 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 23.2 23.0 20.4 0.1 53.3 51.5 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 22.3 22.3 18.4 0.2 55.2 52.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.9 21.1 0.2 53.5 51.7 21.8 22.7 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.2 20.1 0.1 52.9 51.2 22.2 23.1 23.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.9 17.5 -0.1 47.9 46.8 16.1 17.1 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.0 21.8 0.1 52.4 50.8 21.8 22.8 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------