***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 5.5 10.7 84.7 57.3 46.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.5 12.0 94.9 61.3 49.1 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.2 11.7 85.6 56.9 46.4 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.5 10.6 11.3 78.2 53.4 42.3 6.1 9.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.8 6.8 11.2 74.1 51.4 41.7 3.9 6.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.7 15.5 84.9 55.9 45.3 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.8 12.2 98.2 61.3 48.9 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 9.1 15.5 13.0 72.0 49.1 41.2 9.9 15.7 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.6 7.8 10.6 71.0 50.0 40.5 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.7 8.0 12.8 70.8 48.7 40.8 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.4 6.9 11.1 74.6 52.6 42.8 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.6 8.5 11.2 73.5 51.6 42.4 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.3 9.2 13.3 76.8 52.6 43.7 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.5 7.6 12.8 67.9 47.6 38.9 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 3.1 7.2 10.6 75.7 52.7 39.9 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.6 11.9 76.4 52.5 43.1 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.2 10.8 82.7 54.9 43.4 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 8.4 14.3 69.8 47.4 40.3 4.7 9.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.7 12.0 91.4 60.2 48.1 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.7 7.7 15.7 72.1 46.0 39.6 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.4 5.9 9.9 73.4 52.4 42.1 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.2 10.0 74.4 52.0 42.2 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.6 12.2 84.6 57.3 45.2 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.1 7.2 13.0 71.5 49.6 41.1 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.7 79.8 53.7 42.7 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.2 7.7 13.4 79.3 52.9 44.0 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.4 12.0 86.0 56.8 45.7 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.9 10.9 76.1 52.3 41.1 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.6 10.5 14.6 69.1 46.1 39.3 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.3 12.3 97.3 62.2 50.4 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------