***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 17.5 16.8 117.9 69.0 53.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.7 14.2 17.1 118.0 68.7 55.1 4.4 8.2 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.2 15.2 16.7 119.2 69.2 54.3 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 16.1 29.6 24.6 145.7 77.0 62.3 6.4 12.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.4 21.8 23.4 140.3 75.8 59.9 4.9 9.5 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.3 20.6 30.7 119.9 69.0 56.4 5.6 11.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.9 13.5 16.4 109.9 65.7 53.1 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 23.1 35.7 25.2 133.4 73.6 61.5 10.5 18.4 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.2 21.0 21.7 135.9 74.5 58.1 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 20.9 24.7 132.4 73.3 59.9 5.8 10.5 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.1 18.8 22.1 134.2 73.9 60.2 5.4 9.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.7 21.6 21.9 132.0 73.2 60.8 7.2 11.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.9 25.2 117.7 68.1 56.7 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.2 22.2 21.2 121.0 69.6 55.7 7.1 12.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 20.6 23.3 147.0 77.1 61.3 4.6 8.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.4 17.3 24.4 128.9 72.2 59.1 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.1 18.5 16.7 114.7 67.6 54.1 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 20.9 26.4 124.8 71.0 58.6 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 8.6 23.5 17.2 121.0 69.7 55.4 8.3 14.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 18.7 30.5 122.9 70.2 59.3 7.4 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.8 20.8 18.5 131.9 73.2 56.7 5.7 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 16.0 14.9 17.3 117.3 68.3 54.4 5.8 9.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 19.2 18.8 17.4 123.0 70.4 55.5 6.1 10.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.1 22.4 21.4 121.0 69.6 56.2 6.6 12.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.2 20.8 21.9 124.7 70.9 57.2 6.0 11.0 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 16.0 24.0 126.8 71.6 59.3 5.0 8.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.5 18.5 19.6 115.8 68.0 54.8 6.5 11.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.6 22.2 24.7 147.6 77.4 62.2 5.5 9.9 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 25.8 26.9 121.8 69.9 57.6 8.8 15.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.9 16.9 16.6 115.6 67.9 53.7 4.4 9.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------