***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 15.7 18.6 111.3 66.8 55.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.4 19.6 116.9 68.7 58.8 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.3 17.2 18.3 111.5 67.0 56.1 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.8 19.9 90.9 59.0 51.0 5.5 10.4 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.2 20.0 92.1 59.7 51.4 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.7 28.2 95.3 58.8 50.3 6.0 9.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 14.7 14.6 20.3 120.9 70.0 59.8 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.3 23.1 24.1 104.9 63.6 53.9 11.4 17.1 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.8 20.0 94.3 61.0 52.3 4.4 8.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.5 17.3 23.7 99.9 62.2 53.2 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.6 19.7 95.4 60.5 51.1 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.2 20.3 101.6 62.5 51.0 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.0 24.1 97.9 60.6 49.7 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 18.2 22.1 109.1 65.8 57.1 4.9 10.4 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.1 18.8 90.5 59.6 50.7 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.2 21.5 95.5 59.9 50.0 5.6 9.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 13.1 19.5 114.7 68.1 58.7 4.4 7.8 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 17.8 26.3 103.8 63.2 53.9 6.9 12.2 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.9 18.7 113.8 67.8 58.2 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.5 19.0 31.0 111.3 65.8 56.4 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.0 17.7 97.1 62.5 52.7 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.5 16.6 18.2 109.2 66.4 58.1 5.8 10.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.9 18.0 110.8 66.9 57.6 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.8 16.8 22.2 107.7 65.2 55.6 6.1 10.8 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.6 20.6 98.7 61.9 52.9 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.2 22.2 103.1 63.4 52.0 4.1 7.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.4 21.0 109.7 65.8 55.4 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.9 19.8 91.0 59.2 50.6 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.7 21.3 27.2 106.8 64.2 54.5 9.6 15.2 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.7 14.5 19.5 117.8 69.0 58.3 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------